64.5%

Labor Majority

28.3%

Labor Lead

0.8%

Tie

4.5%

Coalition Lead

1.9%

Coalition Majority

Note on Model Evaluation
The First Preference model will be frozen after the final update on Friday, May 2nd. To see how the model will be evaluated on the results of the election, click here. Check back in the first week of June for a full evaluation.

Violin Plot
Shows the distribution of seats each party might win.
Fatter = more likely. Taller = more seats. Isolated dots = rare outcomes.

Simulations Explained
Each point on the plot represents one of 1000 Simulations of the election outcome.
White text shows Average Seats won per party across the 1000 Simulations.
Hover or Touch the Violins to see Seat numbers.
For more details, visit the Methodology section.
See individual seat win probabilities below.

Formation of Government

Likely Outcomes:

Labor Majority – Labor Minority

Plausible Outcomes:

Labor Landslide Hung Parliament

Last updated: May 2, 2025

First Preference Model for Every Party in Every Electorate in Australia

National First Preference Vote Shares By Party

National First Preference Vote Share By Party

Party	Interval of 95% Probability	Mean
Coalition	30.3% – 38.1%	34.1%
Labor	25.5% – 37.2%	31.4%
Greens	9.8% – 15.8%	12.8%
One Nation	5.4% – 11.3%	7.8%
Independent	5.1% – 8.5%	6.5%
Trumpet of Patriots	0.8% – 2.7%	1.9%
Legalise Cannabis	0.9% – 1.9%	1.3%
Libertarian	0.8% – 1.6%	1.1%
Family First	0.7% – 1.4%	1.0%
Animal Justice	0.2% – 0.5%	0.3%
Katter's Australian	0.1% – 0.4%	0.3%
Shooters Fishers & Farmers	0.1% – 0.4%	0.2%
Centre Alliance	0.1% – 0.4%	0.2%
People's First	0.1% – 0.3%	0.2%
Christians	0.1% – 0.3%	0.2%
Citizens Party	0.1% – 0.3%	0.2%
FUSION	0.1% – 0.2%	0.1%
Victorian Socialists	0.0% – 0.2%	0.1%
Socialist Alliance	0.0% – 0.1%	0.1%
Indigenous-Aboriginal	0.0% – 0.1%	0.1%
HEART	0.0% – 0.1%	0.0%
Great Australian Party	0.0% – 0.0%	0.0%
Australian Democrats	0.0% – 0.0%	0.0%

Note on Probabilities
This model is probabilistic: a party winning in 800 of 1000 simulations does not mean it is 'predicted' to win.
It is simply that that party winning is the likelier outcome given the model's structure.
Take 5 seats where the favourite is given about 80% chance of winning:
Hughes (COAL), Chisholm (LAB), Wentworth (IND), Ryan (GRN), Mayo (OTH).
On average, one of these favourites is expected to lose.

Number of Wins out of 1000 Simulations

Electorate	Labor	Coalition	Greens	Independent	One Nation	Other
Adelaide	987	5	8		0	0
Aston	274	726	0	0	0	0
Ballarat	994	6	0	0	0	0
Banks	337	663	0	0	0	0
Barker	1	999	0	0	0	0
Barton	973	26	1		0	0
Bass	456	542	1	0	1	0
Bean	936	2	1	61
Bendigo	985	13	0	1	1	0
Bennelong	641	357	2		0	0
Berowra	23	951	5	21	0	0
Blair	870	119	0		8	3
Blaxland	981	19	0	0	0	0
Bonner	192	807	1		0	0
Boothby	917	77	6		0	0
Bowman	108	890	0	0	2	0
Braddon	75	910	1	8	6	0
Bradfield	19	630	0	351	0	0
Brand	999	0	0		1	0
Brisbane	219	115	666		0	0
Bruce	808	190	0		0	2
Bullwinkel	863	136	1		0	0
Burt	995	4	0	0	1	0
Calare	12	334	0	653	1	0
Calwell	968	28	1	0	2	1
Canberra	963	1	35	1		0
Canning	415	583	0		1	1
Capricornia	70	864	0		66	0
Casey	410	502	12	75	1	0
Chifley	990	8	0	0	2	0
Chisholm	775	222	3	0	0	0
Clark	9	0	0	991	0
Cook	12	988	0		0	0
Cooper	843	0	157		0	0
Corangamite	942	57	1	0	0	0
Corio	998	2	0	0	0	0
Cowan	939	61	0	0	0	0
Cowper	0	749	0	251	0	0
Cunningham	994	2	4		0	0
Curtin	3	376	0	621	0	0
Dawson	3	974	0		23	0
Deakin	336	599	1	64	0	0
Dickson	179	738	0	83	0	0
Dobell	914	86	0		0	0
Dunkley	921	78	0	1	0	0
Durack	224	765	0		11	0
Eden-Monaro	934	66	0	0	0	0
Fadden	25	968	0	0	7	0
Fairfax	4	942	0	40	14	0
Farrer	0	979	0	20	0	1
Fenner	997	2	1			0
Fisher	9	878	0	109	4	0
Flinders	35	925	0	40	0	0
Flynn	190	786	0	0	24	0
Forde	221	764	0	0	15	0
Forrest	231	645	8	109	7	0
Fowler	512	0	0	488	0	0
Franklin	892	3	24	81	0
Fraser	995	1	4		0	0
Fremantle	875	0	1	123	1	0
Gellibrand	987	11	2		0	0
Gilmore	256	696	0	48	0	0
Gippsland	0	998	0		1	1
Goldstein	0	281	0	719	0	0
Gorton	937	59	0		2	2
Grayndler	993	0	7	0	0	0
Greenway	960	40	0	0	0	0
Grey	13	797	0	184	6	0
Griffith	76	52	872		0	0
Groom	3	921	0	67	9	0
Hasluck	988	12	0		0	0
Hawke	938	56	0		5	1
Herbert	10	985	0		5	0
Hindmarsh	981	19	0	0	0	0
Hinkler	15	922	0	53	10	0
Holt	950	49	0		0	1
Hotham	991	8	1		0	0
Hughes	174	826	0		0	0
Hume	33	897	0	52	18	0
Hunter	727	269	0		3	1
Indi	0	116	0	884	0	0
Isaacs	974	25	1		0	0
Jagajaga	978	15	7	0	0	0
Kennedy	1	39	0	0	11	949
Kingsford Smith	995	4	1	0	0
Kingston	998	2	0		0	0
Kooyong	0	322	0	678	0	0
Lalor	992	7	0	0	0	1
La Trobe	31	968	0		1	0
Leichhardt	361	615	0	0	10	14
Lilley	977	21	2		0	0
Lindsay	106	893	0	0	1	0
Lingiari	705	295	0		0	0
Longman	301	694	0		5	0
Lyne	14	787	0	193	1	5
Lyons	415	573	5	0	5	2
Macarthur	965	30	0		5	0
Mackellar	0	307	0	693	0	0
Macnamara	679	8	313	0	0	0
Macquarie	939	61	0		0	0
Makin	993	7	0		0	0
Mallee	0	999	0		1	0
Maranoa	0	994	0		6	0
Maribyrnong	996	3	1		0
Mayo	187	38	14		0	761
McEwen	761	236	1		2	0
McMahon	984	13	0	0	3
McPherson	6	805	1	177	9	2
Melbourne	66	0	934	0	0	0
Menzies	439	555	4	1	0	1
Mitchell	19	980	1		0	0
Monash	209	336	0	453	1	1
Moncrieff	2	951	0	43	4	0
Moore	296	436	0	268	0	0
Moreton	804	134	62		0	0
Newcastle	992	0	8	0	0	0
New England	0	994	0	6	0	0
Nicholls	3	990	0		7	0
O'Connor	117	878	0		3	2
Oxley	984	14	1	1	0	0
Page	0	988	0	11	0	1
Parkes	0	985	0	0	0	15
Parramatta	806	194	0	0	0	0
Paterson	698	299	0	0	2	1
Pearce	990	8	0		1	1
Perth	981	2	17		0
Petrie	199	801	0		0	0
Rankin	966	32	0		2	0
Reid	932	68	0	0	0	0
Richmond	754	12	223	1	0	10
Riverina	1	957	0	28	6	8
Robertson	929	71	0	0	0	0
Ryan	32	115	853		0	0
Scullin	996	2	0		2	0
Shortland	942	56	0	0	2	0
Solomon	928	30	0	42	0	0
Spence	995	2	0	0	3	0
Sturt	347	563	2	88	0	0
Swan	985	14	1		0	0
Sydney	986	0	14		0	0
Tangney	901	99	0		0	0
Wannon	5	728	0	267	0	0
Warringah	0	83	0	917	0	0
Watson	992	8	0	0	0	0
Wentworth	2	181	0	817	0
Werriwa	915	80	0	0	0	5
Whitlam	917	80	1	0	2	0
Wide Bay	5	955	0	4	36	0
Wills	731	0	269		0	0
Wright	4	945	0		51	0