Lindsay
How win probabilities are calculated
Win probabilities show how often a party wins the seat after preferences are distributed, across 1,000 simulated elections.
After First Preferences are counted, the lowest-polling candidate is eliminated and their voters’ next preferences are redistributed to the remaining candidates.
Note: Leading on First Preference votes does not guarantee victory — preference flows between ideologically similar parties can allow a trailing candidate to overtake the early leader.
First Preference Distribution Percentiles
| Party | Mean | 0.5% | 2.5% | 5% | 10% | 25% | 75% | 90% | 95% | 97.5% | 99.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 43.9 | 30.5 | 34.1 | 35.7 | 37.3 | 40.5 | 47.1 | 50.4 | 52.5 | 54.5 | 59.3 |
| Labor | 30.8 | 17.1 | 20.4 | 22.3 | 24.2 | 27.1 | 34.4 | 37.9 | 39.8 | 41.6 | 45.2 |
| One Nation | 7.5 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 8.9 | 10.8 | 12.1 | 13.5 | 17.7 |
| Greens | 6.6 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 7.7 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 10.7 | 12.4 |
| Animal Justice | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 6.1 | 7.2 | 11.0 |
| Trumpet of Patriots | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 6.8 |
| Shooters Fishers & Farmers | 2.2 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 6.1 | 8.2 |
| Independent 1 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 7.5 |
| HEART | 1.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 5.1 |
| Family First | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 4.2 |