Lyne
How win probabilities are calculated
Win probabilities show how often a party wins the seat after preferences are distributed, across 1,000 simulated elections.
After First Preferences are counted, the lowest-polling candidate is eliminated and their voters’ next preferences are redistributed to the remaining candidates.
Note: Leading on First Preference votes does not guarantee victory — preference flows between ideologically similar parties can allow a trailing candidate to overtake the early leader.
First Preference Distribution Percentiles
| Party | Mean | 0.5% | 2.5% | 5% | 10% | 25% | 75% | 90% | 95% | 97.5% | 99.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | 32.4 | 17.8 | 21.6 | 23.9 | 25.6 | 29.1 | 36.0 | 38.9 | 40.6 | 42.3 | 45.7 |
| Labor | 22.4 | 10.1 | 13.4 | 14.7 | 16.4 | 19.2 | 25.6 | 28.4 | 30.0 | 31.8 | 33.8 |
| Ind. Jeremy Miller | 14.8 | 3.8 | 5.4 | 6.5 | 7.9 | 10.5 | 18.3 | 23.1 | 26.6 | 29.8 | 34.1 |
| One Nation | 8.1 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 6.3 | 9.5 | 11.1 | 12.7 | 13.5 | 16.4 |
| Greens | 8.0 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 6.6 | 9.5 | 10.9 | 11.8 | 12.6 | 13.8 |
| Libertarian | 6.5 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 8.1 | 11.0 | 13.2 | 15.3 | 20.3 |
| Legalise Cannabis | 4.4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 5.8 | 8.0 | 10.0 | 11.0 | 13.6 |
| Trumpet of Patriots | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 4.1 |
| Family First | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 6.3 |
| Citizens Party | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 4.9 |