Paterson
How win probabilities are calculated
Win probabilities show how often a party wins the seat after preferences are distributed, across 1,000 simulated elections.
After First Preferences are counted, the lowest-polling candidate is eliminated and their voters’ next preferences are redistributed to the remaining candidates.
Note: Leading on First Preference votes does not guarantee victory — preference flows between ideologically similar parties can allow a trailing candidate to overtake the early leader.
First Preference Distribution Percentiles
| Party | Mean | 0.5% | 2.5% | 5% | 10% | 25% | 75% | 90% | 95% | 97.5% | 99.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labor | 36.6 | 22.3 | 25.6 | 27.4 | 29.2 | 32.8 | 40.3 | 44.3 | 46.1 | 48.6 | 51.7 |
| Liberal | 35.4 | 24.5 | 27.3 | 28.3 | 29.9 | 32.6 | 38.3 | 41.1 | 42.7 | 43.8 | 47.1 |
| One Nation | 10.2 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 7.8 | 12.2 | 14.8 | 17.0 | 18.8 | 21.3 |
| Greens | 7.9 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 6.4 | 9.1 | 10.5 | 11.8 | 12.8 | 15.0 |
| Legalise Cannabis | 4.7 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 5.7 | 7.8 | 9.3 | 11.1 | 16.3 |
| Trumpet of Patriots | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 6.9 |
| Family First | 1.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 4.8 |
| Independent 1 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| Independent 2 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| Independent 3 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.7 |