Whitlam
How win probabilities are calculated
Win probabilities show how often a party wins the seat after preferences are distributed, across 1,000 simulated elections.
After First Preferences are counted, the lowest-polling candidate is eliminated and their voters’ next preferences are redistributed to the remaining candidates.
Note: Leading on First Preference votes does not guarantee victory — preference flows between ideologically similar parties can allow a trailing candidate to overtake the early leader.
First Preference Distribution Percentiles
| Party | Mean | 0.5% | 2.5% | 5% | 10% | 25% | 75% | 90% | 95% | 97.5% | 99.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labor | 35.6 | 21.9 | 24.9 | 26.5 | 28.3 | 31.6 | 39.5 | 43.2 | 45.4 | 46.3 | 49.3 |
| Liberal | 29.6 | 20.4 | 22.7 | 23.4 | 24.8 | 26.8 | 32.0 | 34.9 | 36.5 | 38.6 | 42.2 |
| Greens | 14.2 | 6.2 | 8.2 | 9.0 | 10.0 | 11.6 | 16.3 | 18.8 | 20.7 | 22.3 | 25.2 |
| One Nation | 10.3 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 6.3 | 7.7 | 12.2 | 15.1 | 17.1 | 18.7 | 22.5 |
| Libertarian | 3.7 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 4.6 | 6.4 | 7.4 | 8.5 | 11.0 |
| Trumpet of Patriots | 3.4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 4.3 | 5.6 | 6.6 | 7.6 | 9.3 |
| Citizens Party | 1.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 4.8 |
| Independent 1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 3.3 |
| Independent 2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 3.3 |
| Independent 3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2.6 |