Scullin

How win probabilities are calculated

Win probabilities show how often a party wins the seat after preferences are distributed, across 1,000 simulated elections.

After First Preferences are counted, the lowest-polling candidate is eliminated and their voters’ next preferences are redistributed to the remaining candidates.

Note: Leading on First Preference votes does not guarantee victory — preference flows between ideologically similar parties can allow a trailing candidate to overtake the early leader.

First Preference Distribution Percentiles

Party	Mean	0.5%	2.5%	5%	10%	25%	75%	90%	95%	97.5%	99.5%
Labor	44.8	28.8	32.3	34.1	36.6	40.4	49.3	53.3	56.0	57.9	61.6
Liberal	22.3	13.9	16.0	16.8	18.2	19.9	24.6	26.7	28.4	29.3	32.3
One Nation	12.0	4.3	5.5	6.4	7.3	9.1	14.3	17.3	19.5	22.0	25.5
Greens	11.0	5.3	6.2	6.7	7.4	9.1	12.8	14.7	16.3	17.4	20.0
Trumpet of Patriots	3.1	0.7	1.0	1.2	1.5	2.1	3.9	5.2	5.9	6.9	9.4
Victorian Socialists	3.1	0.6	0.8	1.0	1.2	1.8	3.9	5.2	6.0	7.5	10.3
Family First	2.0	0.4	0.5	0.6	0.7	1.1	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.7	8.0
People’s First	1.7	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.6	0.9	2.1	3.1	3.8	4.6	6.2