Riverina
How win probabilities are calculated
Win probabilities show how often a party wins the seat after preferences are distributed, across 1,000 simulated elections.
After First Preferences are counted, the lowest-polling candidate is eliminated and their voters’ next preferences are redistributed to the remaining candidates.
Note: Leading on First Preference votes does not guarantee victory — preference flows between ideologically similar parties can allow a trailing candidate to overtake the early leader.
First Preference Distribution Percentiles
| Party | Mean | 0.5% | 2.5% | 5% | 10% | 25% | 75% | 90% | 95% | 97.5% | 99.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | 36.8 | 23.6 | 25.7 | 27.3 | 29.6 | 33.2 | 40.4 | 44.2 | 46.0 | 47.8 | 51.7 |
| Labor | 20.8 | 11.7 | 12.8 | 13.8 | 15.5 | 18.0 | 23.4 | 26.5 | 27.9 | 29.3 | 31.3 |
| One Nation | 10.9 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 6.4 | 7.3 | 8.8 | 12.7 | 14.7 | 16.1 | 17.0 | 20.4 |
| Ind. Jenny Rolfe | 9.7 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 6.8 | 11.8 | 15.0 | 17.4 | 19.3 | 24.1 |
| Greens | 6.5 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 7.5 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 10.0 | 11.3 |
| Libertarian | 6.2 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 8.0 | 10.6 | 12.4 | 13.4 | 16.7 |
| Shooters Fishers & Farmers | 4.6 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 6.0 | 8.3 | 9.9 | 11.3 | 14.9 |
| Family First | 1.9 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 6.1 | 8.9 |
| Citizens Party | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 6.6 |
| Independent 1 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 3.1 |
| Independent 4 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2.9 |
| Independent 2 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 2.5 |
| Independent 3 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 2.7 |