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How win probabilities are calculated
Win probabilities show how often a party wins the seat after preferences are distributed, across 1,000 simulated elections.
After First Preferences are counted, the lowest-polling candidate is eliminated and their voters’ next preferences are redistributed to the remaining candidates.
Note: Leading on First Preference votes does not guarantee victory — preference flows between ideologically similar parties can allow a trailing candidate to overtake the early leader.
First Preference Distribution Percentiles
| Party | Mean | 0.5% | 2.5% | 5% | 10% | 25% | 75% | 90% | 95% | 97.5% | 99.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | 43.7 | 27.6 | 31.1 | 33.7 | 36.4 | 39.9 | 47.6 | 50.9 | 52.9 | 54.6 | 57.1 |
| Labor | 16.8 | 8.8 | 10.4 | 11.5 | 12.6 | 14.4 | 19.1 | 21.3 | 22.7 | 24.1 | 26.3 |
| Greens | 10.2 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 6.9 | 8.3 | 11.8 | 13.5 | 14.7 | 15.9 | 18.2 |
| One Nation | 7.2 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 8.4 | 10.3 | 11.5 | 12.9 | 14.6 |
| Independent 1 | 6.2 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 7.9 | 10.1 | 11.9 | 13.7 | 18.0 |
| Independent 2 | 6.1 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 7.6 | 10.1 | 11.7 | 12.9 | 16.1 |
| Libertarian | 3.2 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 4.2 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 8.7 | 12.6 |
| Shooters Fishers & Farmers | 3.2 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 4.1 | 5.9 | 7.3 | 8.2 | 11.3 |
| Trumpet of Patriots | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 5.0 |
| Family First | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 5.2 |
| Citizens Party | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 4.6 |