McPherson
How win probabilities are calculated
Win probabilities show how often a party wins the seat after preferences are distributed, across 1,000 simulated elections.
After First Preferences are counted, the lowest-polling candidate is eliminated and their voters’ next preferences are redistributed to the remaining candidates.
Note: Leading on First Preference votes does not guarantee victory — preference flows between ideologically similar parties can allow a trailing candidate to overtake the early leader.
First Preference Distribution Percentiles
| Party | Mean | 0.5% | 2.5% | 5% | 10% | 25% | 75% | 90% | 95% | 97.5% | 99.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal National | 36.0 | 19.6 | 24.2 | 26.2 | 28.3 | 32.1 | 39.9 | 43.4 | 45.3 | 46.6 | 50.5 |
| Labor | 17.0 | 8.1 | 10.2 | 10.9 | 12.3 | 14.2 | 19.4 | 22.1 | 23.7 | 25.1 | 28.5 |
| Ind. Erchana Murray-Barlett | 11.6 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 14.6 | 19.0 | 21.6 | 24.6 | 29.6 |
| Greens | 10.7 | 4.8 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 8.6 | 12.4 | 14.5 | 15.5 | 16.5 | 19.4 |
| One Nation | 8.2 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 6.2 | 9.7 | 11.7 | 13.1 | 14.3 | 17.7 |
| Legalise Cannabis | 5.2 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 10.8 | 12.4 | 15.1 |
| Libertarian | 2.8 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 3.8 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 10.9 |
| Trumpet of Patriots | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 5.3 |
| Independent 2 | 2.0 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 8.6 |
| Animal Justice | 1.9 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 5.3 | 6.6 | 8.1 |
| Family First | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 7.4 |
| People’s First | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 8.2 |