Leichhardt
How win probabilities are calculated
Win probabilities show how often a party wins the seat after preferences are distributed, across 1,000 simulated elections.
After First Preferences are counted, the lowest-polling candidate is eliminated and their voters’ next preferences are redistributed to the remaining candidates.
Note: Leading on First Preference votes does not guarantee victory — preference flows between ideologically similar parties can allow a trailing candidate to overtake the early leader.
First Preference Distribution Percentiles
| Party | Mean | 0.5% | 2.5% | 5% | 10% | 25% | 75% | 90% | 95% | 97.5% | 99.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal National | 32.7 | 20.8 | 24.5 | 25.8 | 27.2 | 29.6 | 35.6 | 38.8 | 40.3 | 41.8 | 45.0 |
| Labor | 27.7 | 14.9 | 17.8 | 19.7 | 21.4 | 24.1 | 31.2 | 34.3 | 36.5 | 38.2 | 41.4 |
| Greens | 11.7 | 5.5 | 6.6 | 7.4 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 13.4 | 15.7 | 17.2 | 18.5 | 20.9 |
| One Nation | 10.8 | 4.1 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 8.3 | 12.7 | 15.3 | 17.0 | 19.0 | 24.3 |
| Legalise Cannabis | 7.7 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 9.6 | 12.8 | 14.7 | 17.7 | 23.6 |
| Libertarian | 2.8 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 3.6 | 5.2 | 6.3 | 7.5 | 10.6 |
| Trumpet of Patriots | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 5.7 |
| Independent 1 | 2.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 6.4 | 8.9 |
| Family First | 1.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 6.0 |
| Katter’s Australian | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 5.4 |