Calare
How win probabilities are calculated
Win probabilities show how often a party wins the seat after preferences are distributed, across 1,000 simulated elections.
After First Preferences are counted, the lowest-polling candidate is eliminated and their voters’ next preferences are redistributed to the remaining candidates.
Note: Leading on First Preference votes does not guarantee victory — preference flows between ideologically similar parties can allow a trailing candidate to overtake the early leader.
First Preference Distribution Percentiles
| Party | Mean | 0.5% | 2.5% | 5% | 10% | 25% | 75% | 90% | 95% | 97.5% | 99.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | 23.9 | 6.0 | 8.4 | 10.3 | 12.5 | 18.1 | 29.9 | 35.1 | 37.4 | 39.2 | 43.7 |
| Ind. Andrew Gee | 20.2 | 3.7 | 6.0 | 7.2 | 9.7 | 13.3 | 26.1 | 32.4 | 35.7 | 38.1 | 45.8 |
| Ind. Kate Hook | 18.8 | 3.9 | 5.6 | 7.2 | 8.7 | 12.3 | 23.6 | 30.2 | 35.2 | 39.2 | 46.9 |
| Labor | 15.3 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 6.4 | 8.0 | 11.3 | 19.2 | 22.8 | 24.6 | 26.6 | 30.0 |
| One Nation | 6.4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 7.9 | 9.9 | 11.1 | 12.0 | 14.5 |
| Greens | 5.2 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 6.6 | 8.0 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 11.2 |
| Shooters Fishers & Farmers | 4.6 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 6.3 | 9.5 | 11.7 | 14.0 | 17.1 |
| Legalise Cannabis | 2.6 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 3.6 | 5.6 | 7.6 | 9.4 | 13.0 |
| Trumpet of Patriots | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 5.0 |
| Family First | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 5.8 | 8.6 |