2026 Victorian State Election

Next Government Probabilities

COAL majority: COAL:
--%
COAL + ON minority: COAL+ON:
--%
LAB majority: LAB:
--%
LAB + GRN minority: LAB+GRN:
--%
No clear minority: Unclear:
--%

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Projected First Preference Votes

Violin Icon
Violin Plot
Shows vote distribution.
Fatter = more likely.
Taller = higher vote share.
TCP:
Understanding the Projections
The violins show the first preference vote distribution across simulations of this electorate. Fatter areas indicate the most likely outcomes.
Hover to see exact percentages, or click Simulate to view sample results as white, clickable dots on the violins.
See the workings of the model here.

Chances of Winning