Richmond
How win probabilities are calculated
Win probabilities show how often a party wins the seat after preferences are distributed, across 1,000 simulated elections.
After First Preferences are counted, the lowest-polling candidate is eliminated and their voters’ next preferences are redistributed to the remaining candidates.
Note: Leading on First Preference votes does not guarantee victory — preference flows between ideologically similar parties can allow a trailing candidate to overtake the early leader.
First Preference Distribution Percentiles
| Party | Mean | 0.5% | 2.5% | 5% | 10% | 25% | 75% | 90% | 95% | 97.5% | 99.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greens | 27.0 | 12.7 | 16.2 | 17.6 | 19.7 | 22.9 | 30.6 | 34.5 | 37.2 | 39.2 | 43.4 |
| Labor | 26.0 | 13.9 | 16.9 | 18.1 | 19.8 | 22.5 | 29.0 | 32.7 | 34.5 | 35.9 | 39.6 |
| National | 19.5 | 11.8 | 13.8 | 14.6 | 15.7 | 17.4 | 21.5 | 23.5 | 24.5 | 25.6 | 28.0 |
| Libertarian | 7.9 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 9.8 | 13.4 | 15.6 | 17.2 | 21.9 |
| One Nation | 5.7 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 6.7 | 8.2 | 8.9 | 10.0 | 12.7 |
| Legalise Cannabis | 4.9 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 6.3 | 8.8 | 10.4 | 12.1 | 15.8 |
| Trumpet of Patriots | 2.7 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 7.7 |
| Independent 2 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 8.3 |
| Independent 1 | 2.4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 8.2 |
| People’s First | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 7.2 |