Parkes
How win probabilities are calculated
Win probabilities show how often a party wins the seat after preferences are distributed, across 1,000 simulated elections.
After First Preferences are counted, the lowest-polling candidate is eliminated and their voters’ next preferences are redistributed to the remaining candidates.
Note: Leading on First Preference votes does not guarantee victory — preference flows between ideologically similar parties can allow a trailing candidate to overtake the early leader.
First Preference Distribution Percentiles
| Party | Mean | 0.5% | 2.5% | 5% | 10% | 25% | 75% | 90% | 95% | 97.5% | 99.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | 40.2 | 25.5 | 29.7 | 31.6 | 33.9 | 36.7 | 44.1 | 46.6 | 48.7 | 50.6 | 54.8 |
| Labor | 21.8 | 12.5 | 14.0 | 15.2 | 16.6 | 19.1 | 24.6 | 27.4 | 28.9 | 30.0 | 33.0 |
| One Nation | 7.6 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 6.0 | 8.9 | 10.7 | 11.8 | 13.6 | 15.1 |
| Shooters Fishers & Farmers | 7.0 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 4.7 | 8.9 | 11.4 | 13.0 | 14.6 | 19.5 |
| Greens | 5.8 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 6.8 | 7.8 | 8.4 | 9.1 | 10.5 |
| Libertarian | 5.1 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 6.5 | 8.8 | 10.2 | 11.8 | 15.9 |
| Indigenous-Aboriginal | 4.4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 5.7 | 7.7 | 9.0 | 10.7 | 13.7 |
| Trumpet of Patriots | 3.6 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 6.6 | 7.8 | 8.9 |
| Independent 1 | 2.4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 3.2 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 9.7 |
| Family First | 2.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 6.2 | 8.3 |