Cowper
How win probabilities are calculated
Win probabilities show how often a party wins the seat after preferences are distributed, across 1,000 simulated elections.
After First Preferences are counted, the lowest-polling candidate is eliminated and their voters’ next preferences are redistributed to the remaining candidates.
Note: Leading on First Preference votes does not guarantee victory — preference flows between ideologically similar parties can allow a trailing candidate to overtake the early leader.
First Preference Distribution Percentiles
| Party | Mean | 0.5% | 2.5% | 5% | 10% | 25% | 75% | 90% | 95% | 97.5% | 99.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | 38.7 | 21.5 | 25.0 | 27.3 | 29.7 | 34.2 | 43.6 | 46.9 | 49.4 | 50.7 | 54.0 |
| Ind. Caz Heise | 21.0 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 10.4 | 12.1 | 15.6 | 25.4 | 31.4 | 35.1 | 37.6 | 42.0 |
| Labor | 12.1 | 5.9 | 7.0 | 7.6 | 8.5 | 9.9 | 14.0 | 15.9 | 17.3 | 18.3 | 21.8 |
| One Nation | 8.7 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 7.0 | 10.2 | 11.9 | 13.0 | 14.2 | 16.6 |
| Greens | 5.6 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 7.8 | 8.5 | 9.0 | 10.2 |
| Legalise Cannabis | 3.6 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 4.7 | 6.9 | 8.5 | 10.0 | 13.8 |
| Independent 1 | 3.6 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 4.7 | 6.6 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 13.0 |
| Libertarian | 3.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 4.1 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 8.9 | 12.8 |
| Trumpet of Patriots | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 5.3 |
| Family First | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 9.3 |
| FUSION | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 5.6 |