Blair
How win probabilities are calculated
Win probabilities show how often a party wins the seat after preferences are distributed, across 1,000 simulated elections.
After First Preferences are counted, the lowest-polling candidate is eliminated and their voters’ next preferences are redistributed to the remaining candidates.
Note: Leading on First Preference votes does not guarantee victory — preference flows between ideologically similar parties can allow a trailing candidate to overtake the early leader.
First Preference Distribution Percentiles
| Party | Mean | 0.5% | 2.5% | 5% | 10% | 25% | 75% | 90% | 95% | 97.5% | 99.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labor | 34.1 | 18.9 | 22.5 | 24.4 | 26.8 | 30.1 | 38.1 | 41.7 | 43.9 | 45.7 | 50.1 |
| Liberal National | 27.4 | 16.9 | 19.7 | 20.8 | 22.3 | 24.7 | 29.9 | 32.6 | 34.5 | 35.7 | 38.0 |
| One Nation | 11.1 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 13.0 | 16.1 | 18.3 | 20.7 | 23.8 |
| Greens | 9.4 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 7.6 | 11.0 | 12.7 | 13.9 | 15.2 | 18.7 |
| Legalise Cannabis | 7.1 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 8.7 | 11.7 | 13.6 | 15.9 | 22.8 |
| Trumpet of Patriots | 3.1 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 7.8 |
| Libertarian | 3.0 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 3.8 | 5.4 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 10.6 |
| Animal Justice | 1.9 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 5.6 | 8.1 |
| Family First | 1.6 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 6.3 |
| People’s First | 1.4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 6.0 |