Bendigo
How win probabilities are calculated
Win probabilities show how often a party wins the seat after preferences are distributed, across 1,000 simulated elections.
After First Preferences are counted, the lowest-polling candidate is eliminated and their voters’ next preferences are redistributed to the remaining candidates.
Note: Leading on First Preference votes does not guarantee victory — preference flows between ideologically similar parties can allow a trailing candidate to overtake the early leader.
First Preference Distribution Percentiles
| Party | Mean | 0.5% | 2.5% | 5% | 10% | 25% | 75% | 90% | 95% | 97.5% | 99.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labor | 38.9 | 23.8 | 27.1 | 28.9 | 31.2 | 34.7 | 42.9 | 47.3 | 49.4 | 51.7 | 56.3 |
| Liberal | 20.7 | 10.9 | 12.6 | 13.9 | 15.2 | 17.6 | 23.5 | 26.5 | 28.1 | 29.7 | 32.8 |
| Greens | 12.6 | 5.6 | 7.0 | 7.8 | 8.7 | 10.4 | 14.5 | 16.8 | 18.4 | 19.9 | 22.5 |
| One Nation | 7.0 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 8.6 | 10.1 | 11.6 | 12.6 | 14.4 |
| National | 6.0 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 7.9 | 10.4 | 12.0 | 13.6 | 15.7 |
| Legalise Cannabis | 5.0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 6.4 | 8.6 | 10.4 | 12.0 | 15.4 |
| Independent 1 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 9.1 | 10.1 | 12.7 |
| Libertarian | 3.6 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 4.4 | 6.3 | 7.3 | 8.4 | 12.4 |
| Family First | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 5.9 |
| Victorian Socialists | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 3.9 |